Are Mortgage Rates Set to Fall? Market Signals Positive News for Buyers in SW11 & SW4
With the Bank of England’s next interest rate decision just weeks away, speculation is building that a base rate cut is due – a welcome shift for anyone looking to get onto the property ladder in London’s competitive market.
At Noble Estates, this potential change generates a noticeable buzz among first-time buyers south of the river, especially in popular postcodes like SW11 (Battersea/Clapham Junction) and SW4 (Clapham).
Swap Rates Point to a Shift
The swap market, which lenders use to price fixed-rate mortgages, has dropped significantly in recent weeks. As of mid-April 5-year swap rates had dipped to 3.7%, signalling market confidence that interest rates have peaked and may soon fall.
This drop is a key reason why many lenders have quietly adjusted their mortgage pricing.
Lenders Cutting Rates – Good News for FTBs
Major lenders such as HSBC and Barclays have recently reduced selected fixed-rate mortgage deals, with some of the most competitive rates aimed at first-time buyers. Smaller building societies have also followed suit.
For buyers looking in SW11 and SW4, this could translate into greater affordability — especially with typical one-bed and two-bed flats still attracting strong demand from professionals and young couples.
At Noble Estates, we’re seeing more first-time buyers reconsider their timelines, with some now actively re-engaging after holding off due to high borrowing costs.
Why the Optimism?
Several economic factors are contributing to this positive outlook:
- UK inflation continues to ease with a surprise dip today to 2.6% from 2.8%.
- GDP growth remains flat, indicating less pressure on the Bank of England to keep rates high.
- Globally, central banks like the US Federal Reserve are also signalling a move away from aggressive rate hikes.
What’s Next?
The next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled for 9 May 2025, and markets are currently pricing in a potential 0.25% base rate cut.
If this goes ahead, we may see even more lenders respond with lower fixed-rate mortgage options — a potential turning point for those looking to buy their first home in SW11, SW4, and surrounding areas. A good time to buy.